Mesoscale Discussion 0831
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1012 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

   Areas affected...Western West Virginia...Southern and Eastern
   Kentucky...Northern Tennessee

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 269...

   Valid 170312Z - 170515Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 269 continues.

   SUMMARY...A threat for tornadoes, large hail and wind damage will
   continue over the next 2 to 3 hours. A few strong tornadoes will be
   possible. As severe storms move toward the edge of WW 269, an
   extension or new watch may be required.

   DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a large area of
   severe storms extending from the Ohio Valley west-southwestward into
   the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the storms, moderate
   instability is analyzed by the RAP from middle Tennessee northward
   into central and eastern Kentucky. The storms will continue to move
   into this instability, which will help maintain updraft intensity.
   In addition, the WSR-88D VWP at Nashville has strong directional
   shear in the lowest 1 km, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near
   700 m2/s2. This shear environment will continue to support a tornado
   threat with supercells. A few strong tornadoes will be possible with
   the most intense supercells. Also, the RAP shows a plume of steep
   mid-level lapse rates extending eastward across Tennessee and
   southern Kentucky, suggesting that large hail will continue to be
   possible with the supercells.

   Over the last couple of hours, a gradual transition to a linear mode
   has occurred ahead of a cold front. This line will catch up to the
   more discrete cells. As this happens, the wind-damage threat will
   increase and become more dominant. Severe gusts exceeding 75 mph
   will be possible along the faster moving parts of the line.

   ..Broyles/Gleason.. 05/17/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   36168340 37148211 37908175 38468189 38658238 38518287
               37988376 37388523 36958743 36668807 36348817 36118765
               36088558 36168340 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...4.00+ IN