ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 180040 SPC MCD 180040 OKZ000-TXZ000-180245- Mesoscale Discussion 0847 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Areas affected...Oklahoma...North Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 279... Valid 180040Z - 180245Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 279 continues. SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue across part of western, central and southeastern Oklahoma over the next few hours. Large hail potentially over 2 inches in diameter, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes will be possible. DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from KTLX shows a supercell in southeast Oklahoma, and a second supercell near the Red River. These severe storms are located near a bullseye in instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range. In addition, the Fort Smith, AR WSR-88D VWP has a looping hodograph, with strong directional shear in the low-levels, and 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This environment will be favorable for supercells, with tornado and large hail potential. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter be possible within the more intense cores. Over the next hour, a storm merger will be possible in southeast Oklahoma. Although it is uncertain how this will affect the severe threat, a local increase in damaging winds will be possible as the merger takes place. Northwestward into parts of central and northwest Oklahoma, short-term forecasts suggest that a small severe convective cluster will form and progress eastward this evening, along and near the warm front. For this reason, a threat for large hail and wind damage is expected to develop in the northwestern part of the watch over the next hour or two. ..Broyles.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33929528 33669611 33819719 34139839 34779969 35359997 35899993 36299946 36369821 35579622 34779528 33929528 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN NNNN