Mesoscale Discussion 0854
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0656 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025

   Areas affected...central Arkansas and northern Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 284...

   Valid 181156Z - 181400Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 284
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Long-lived cluster of thunderstorms, with a history of
   producing wind damage, continues to move through central Arkansas.
   The overall environment should continue to support a severe threat
   ahead of this MCS through at least mid morning.

   DISCUSSION...Long-lived linear MCS, with a history of producing wind
   damage, continues to move east-southeast through much of Arkansas
   this morning. This MCS is moving along a west-northwest to
   east-southeast CAPE gradient stretching from northeast Oklahoma into
   southern Georgia and is following a similar path as to an earlier
   MCS from last evening into earlier this morning. 

   The overall large-scale environment will continue to support
   maintenance of this MCS as the MCS has access to MUCAPE greater than
   2000 J/kg and effective shear around 50 knots. The organization of
   the MCS, the overall favorable environment,and knowledge that the
   earlier MCS traversed a similar environment and is continuing
   through Alabama supports the severe threat through the morning. A
   downstream watch may become necessary for portions of far eastern
   Arkansas and northern Mississippi as the MCS approaches the edge of
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch #284.

   ..Marsh.. 05/18/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

   LAT...LON   35469280 34228896 33228915 34329338 35469280 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN