Mesoscale Discussion 0861
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0442 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of northern Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 182142Z - 182245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Risk of severe wind gusts and large hail will continue
   spreading eastward into tonight. A watch is likely.

   DISCUSSION...An earlier supercell cluster with a history of
   producing large hail and severe winds gusts is tracking eastward
   along a warm front draped across northern Arkansas. While this storm
   is generally right on the boundary, it appears to have access to
   moderately unstable surface-based air to its immediate south.
   Low/midlevel warm advection is contributing to upscale growth, and
   around 50 kt of 0-6 km shear (per nearby VWP) will favor continued
   organization/upscale growth into an MCS -- with an attendant risk of
   severe wind gusts and sporadic large hail. A watch is likely for
   parts of the area.

   ..Weinman/Gleason.. 05/18/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...

   LAT...LON   34989119 34969211 35459366 35819429 36219431 36469411
               36529373 36449296 36079108 35819074 35279079 34989119 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN