Mesoscale Discussion 0863
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0514 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

   Areas affected...Northeast Colorado...Southwest Nebraska...Northwest
   Kansas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 286...

   Valid 182214Z - 190015Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 286 continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat will increase across parts of the
   central High Plains over the next couple of hours. Tornadoes, large
   hail and wind damage will be possible with the more intense cores.

   DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery at Cheyenne,
   Wyoming shows a cluster of severe storms with several supercells
   located from northeastern Colorado into far western Nebraska. The
   storms are located to the west of a low-level moisture axis, where
   surface dewpoints are in the 55 to 60 F range, and the RAP has
   MLCAPE estimated in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Convective coverage
   is expected to increase as large-scale ascent, associated with an
   approaching mid-level trough, overspreads the central High Plains.  
   The exit region of a mid-level jet is currently located over the
   central High Plains, which is enhancing lift and deep-layer shear.
   The latest WSR-88D VWP at Goodland, Kansas has 0-6 km shear near 50
   knots, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 300 m2/s2. In
   addition, the 20Z sounding at North Platte, Nebraska has a 700-500
   mb lapse rate near 9 C/km. This environment will be favorable for
   supercells with tornadoes, large and wind damage. Hailstones greater
   than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense
   supercells.

   ..Broyles.. 05/18/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   39869942 40519970 41590087 42050198 42120272 42020339
               41750387 41380421 40970417 40610363 39930268 39370211
               38900154 38740105 38920022 39339962 39869942 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN