Mesoscale Discussion 0867
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0802 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of northern/central Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 289...

   Valid 190102Z - 190230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 289
   continues.

   SUMMARY...An isolated risk of severe hail and locally damaging winds
   continues across parts of northern/central Arkansas.

   DISCUSSION...The earlier cluster of severe thunderstorms across
   northern/central Arkansas went through a weakening phase as its
   inflow became largely displaced to the cool side of the surface
   boundary amid strong low-level warm advection. However, recent radar
   data depicts some uptick in convection along the southern periphery
   of the anafrontal activity -- and these storms may be ingesting
   near-surface-based instability. If this trend continues, around
   40-50 kt of 0-6km shear (per LZK VWP and mesoanalysis data) should
   support an isolated risk of severe hail and damaging winds for the
   next couple hours. While the severe risk may extend eastward out of
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch 289, the expected localized nature of the
   risk should preclude a downstream watch (though trends will be
   monitored).

   ..Weinman.. 05/19/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...

   LAT...LON   34679057 35179258 35329279 35629264 35649231 35369060
               35159023 34869029 34679057 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN