ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 190102 
SPC MCD 190102 
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-190230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0867
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0802 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

Areas affected...Parts of northern/central Arkansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 289...

Valid 190102Z - 190230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 289
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated risk of severe hail and locally damaging winds
continues across parts of northern/central Arkansas.

DISCUSSION...The earlier cluster of severe thunderstorms across
northern/central Arkansas went through a weakening phase as its
inflow became largely displaced to the cool side of the surface
boundary amid strong low-level warm advection. However, recent radar
data depicts some uptick in convection along the southern periphery
of the anafrontal activity -- and these storms may be ingesting
near-surface-based instability. If this trend continues, around
40-50 kt of 0-6km shear (per LZK VWP and mesoanalysis data) should
support an isolated risk of severe hail and damaging winds for the
next couple hours. While the severe risk may extend eastward out of
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 289, the expected localized nature of the
risk should preclude a downstream watch (though trends will be
monitored).

..Weinman.. 05/19/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   34679057 35179258 35329279 35629264 35649231 35369060
            35159023 34869029 34679057 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

NNNN