Mesoscale Discussion 0878
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0119 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

   Areas affected...Southern Appalachians into eastern Georgia and
   western South Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 191819Z - 192015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing across the southern Appalachians
   are expected to propagate southeastward into eastern Georgia and
   western South Carolina through the afternoon. These storms may pose
   a severe hail/damaging wind threat through late afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible imagery shows the early signs of
   convective development along and ahead of an outflow boundary
   associated with a dying convective cluster across northern GA and
   and extreme southeast TN/southwest NC. Downstream of this activity,
   temperatures are warming into the upper 70s and low 80s, which is
   quickly eroding MLCIN and promoting MLCAPE values upwards of 1500
   J/kg to the west of a diffuse baroclinic zone. Thunderstorms will
   likely intensify as they propagate along the boundary to the
   southeast. Along-boundary deep-layer shear on the order of 40-50
   knots will promote storm organization, potentially into a few
   supercells, with an attendant threat for large hail and damaging
   winds. It remains unclear whether storm mode will remain primarily
   cellular with large hail as the predominant threat, or if upscale
   growth into an organized cluster can occur with a more widespread
   wind threat. Regardless, the severe threat is expected to increase
   through the late afternoon hours, and watch issuance is possible if
   convection begins to pose a robust/widespread threat.

   ..Moore/Hart.. 05/19/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

   LAT...LON   33308203 34348494 34648521 35008510 35488469 35468399
               34428105 34128090 33798089 33468117 33318154 33278173
               33308203 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH