ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 191819 SPC MCD 191819 SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-192015- Mesoscale Discussion 0878 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Areas affected...Southern Appalachians into eastern Georgia and western South Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 191819Z - 192015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing across the southern Appalachians are expected to propagate southeastward into eastern Georgia and western South Carolina through the afternoon. These storms may pose a severe hail/damaging wind threat through late afternoon. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible imagery shows the early signs of convective development along and ahead of an outflow boundary associated with a dying convective cluster across northern GA and and extreme southeast TN/southwest NC. Downstream of this activity, temperatures are warming into the upper 70s and low 80s, which is quickly eroding MLCIN and promoting MLCAPE values upwards of 1500 J/kg to the west of a diffuse baroclinic zone. Thunderstorms will likely intensify as they propagate along the boundary to the southeast. Along-boundary deep-layer shear on the order of 40-50 knots will promote storm organization, potentially into a few supercells, with an attendant threat for large hail and damaging winds. It remains unclear whether storm mode will remain primarily cellular with large hail as the predominant threat, or if upscale growth into an organized cluster can occur with a more widespread wind threat. Regardless, the severe threat is expected to increase through the late afternoon hours, and watch issuance is possible if convection begins to pose a robust/widespread threat. ..Moore/Hart.. 05/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC... LAT...LON 33308203 34348494 34648521 35008510 35488469 35468399 34428105 34128090 33798089 33468117 33318154 33278173 33308203 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH NNNN