ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 191845 SPC MCD 191845 OKZ000-TXZ000-192045- Mesoscale Discussion 0879 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Areas affected...parts of north central Texas into south central Oklahoma Concerning...Tornado Watch 292... Valid 191845Z - 192045Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 292 continues. SUMMARY...Intensifying supercells increasingly probable through 4-7 PM CDT, initially posing a risk for large to giant hail, before the risk for a couple of strong tornadoes increases toward early evening. A new tornado watch is likely across parts of north central Texas. DISCUSSION...Even with downward mixing of momentum, within the more strongly heated and deeply mixed boundary layer to the west of the dryline, west-southwesterly surface gusts remain relatively modest, as a significant mid-level trough begins to pivot northeast of the southern high plains. However, as this trough gradually takes on more of a negative tilt, strongest mid/upper forcing for ascent within its base is forecast to overspread the dryline across the Red River vicinity through 21-00Z. Sustained intensifying thunderstorm development may now be underway along the sharpening dryline to the southwest of Wichita Falls TX. This seems likely to persist, as inhibition continues to erode with further insolation and cooling aloft. A notable further increase in number of storms seems probable with the forcing for ascent, particularly focused south of Chickasha OK into the Mineral Wells TX vicinity, before spreading northeastward/eastward. Thermodynamic profiles characterized by steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates and CAPE approaching 4000 j/kg will probably support a few intense supercells, in the presence of strongly sheared 40-50 kt southwesterly deep-layer mean flow. Toward 20/00Z, initially modest low-level hodographs may begin to enlarge and become more conducive to tornado potential across the Red River vicinity near/east of the Ardmore vicinity. ..Kerr.. 05/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 34389814 35019760 35149676 34669616 33609625 32479794 32519880 33009921 34389814 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH NNNN