Mesoscale Discussion 0881
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0312 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

   Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska to northeast Kansas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 293...294...

   Valid 192012Z - 192215Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 293, 294 continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for large hail, severe wind, and tornadoes
   continues across southeast Nebraska into northeast Kansas, though a
   couple of localized corridors of higher tornado potential are
   becoming apparent.

   DISCUSSION...Convection developing along a cold front/confluence
   axis across southeast NE continues to intensify, and a few cells
   have begun to show signs of persistent mid-level rotation based on
   KUEX velocity imagery. Additional cells continue to develop along
   the boundary, so storm coverage is expected to increase over the
   next 1-2 hours.  Ambient vorticity along the strongly confluent
   boundary coupled with strong, organizing updrafts deepening atop the
   boundary should support a tornado threat for the next few hours,
   though tornado strength/longevity may be modulated by destructive
   storm interactions. Regardless, a large hail threat will continue
   with 1 inch hail recently reported. 

   Further southeast into northeast KS, deep convection is developing
   along the dryline per GOES imagery and latest lightning data.
   Modifying an 18 UTC OAX sounding based on warm sector observations
   suggests that sufficient buoyancy and low-level helicity is in place
   to support STP values up to 2 downstream of the developing storms.
   Strong cross-boundary flow should promote supercellular storm modes
   with a strong tornado and very large hail threat for the next couple
   of hours along the KS/NE border.

   ..Moore.. 05/19/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

   LAT...LON   39049688 39759719 40159748 40509797 40679812 41019816
               41659808 41859787 41929745 41829693 41549639 41229606
               40799585 40409571 39689567 39369586 39199614 39059655
               39049688 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN