ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 192221 
SPC MCD 192221 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-200015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0886
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0521 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Areas affected...Western Missouri...Far Northwest Arkansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 292...294...

Valid 192221Z - 200015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 292, 294 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to increase across the
western Ozarks early this evening. Tornadoes, large hail and wind
damage will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar from Tulsa shows
scattered severe storms, with multiple supercells and short intense
line segments, located from northeastern Oklahoma extending
northward into far western Missouri. The RAP is analyzing moderate
instability to the east of the storms over much of the Ozarks, where
MLCAPE is estimated to be around 2000 J/kg. In addition, the  axis
of a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is analyzed from eastern Oklahoma
into western Missouri. The low-level jet will gradually increase and
move eastward, which will increase low-level shear across the
western Ozarks. RAP forecast soundings for Springfield, Missouri
increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 300 to 350 m2/s2
range by early evening. In response, a tornado threat is expected to
develop across the western Ozarks over the next few hours. Wind
damage will also be possible with bowing line segments. Supercells
may also produce large hail.

..Broyles.. 05/19/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...

LAT...LON   38819430 38459460 37619472 36739469 36089461 35879426
            35869369 36079316 36989295 37589292 38289295 38759319
            38899381 38819430 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN

NNNN