ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 192311 SPC MCD 192311 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-200045- Mesoscale Discussion 0888 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0611 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Areas affected...Parts of eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 192311Z - 200045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A new Tornado Watch will be needed for parts of eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. This watch will replace parts of Tornado Watch 295. DISCUSSION...Intensifying severe storms will continue spreading/developing east-northeastward across the eastern half of OK into western Arkansas into tonight. Across the area, strong surface-based instability is already in place, and a 40-50 kt low-level jet is yielding clockwise-curved hodographs -- characterized by upwards of 300 m2/s2 0-1km SRH (per regional VWP). While there may be a tendency for storms to gradually grow upscale into intense/organized clusters/bowing segments, the aforementioned wind profile will still support embedded/long-lived supercells -- capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. A Tornado Watch will likely be issued for this area. Farther west into central OK, some guidance indicates additional storm development in the vicinity of the dryline as midlevel ascent overspreads the area into tonight. If this were to occur, ample instability and 50+ kt of effective shear would support organized storms, to include supercells. Severe wind gusts and large hail would likely be the primary threats with this activity, given more unidirectional shear with westward extent (away from the focused low-level jet). Convective and environmental trends are being monitored for the need for an additional watch here. ..Weinman/Gleason.. 05/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34119586 34629596 35829532 36339481 36559427 36629365 36469273 36179222 35649213 34649262 34019331 33709423 33819522 34119586 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN NNNN