Mesoscale Discussion 0895
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1042 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

   Areas affected...Eastern Missouri...Central and Northern
   Arkansas...Western Illinois

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 297...298...

   Valid 200342Z - 200545Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 297, 298 continues.

   SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue across parts of
   central and northern Arkansas into parts of eastern Missouri and
   southwest Illinois. A severe threat may develop over parts of
   eastern Arkansas. Weather watch issuance may be needed to the east
   of WW 297.

   DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a line of strong
   to severe storms, located from central and northern Arkansas
   northward into southeast Missouri. Other severe storms are located
   in the vicinity of St Louis. Ahead of the line, moderate instability
   is analyzed by the RAP, with MLCAPE estimated in the 1500 to 2000
   J/kg range. In addition, the RAP has a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet
   located across eastern and central Arkansas, with the nose of the
   jet in southeast Missouri. This is creating strong low-level shear,
   which is sampled by the Little Rock WSR-88D VWP, which has 0-3 km
   storm-relative helicity near 400 m2/s2. This suggests that a tornado
   threat will continue late this evening, with the threat maximized
   with rotating cells embedded in or ahead of the line. The potential
   for wind damage will be concentrated along the more intense parts of
   the line. The severe threat will increase as the line moves eastward
   into eastern Arkansas, where watch issuance may be needed.

   ..Broyles/Gleason.. 05/20/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

   LAT...LON   34419338 34309273 34359183 34589111 35229043 36138977
               37748917 38648909 39198953 39299038 39179094 39019118
               38809137 38379149 37929170 37169193 36589223 35759294
               35069376 34699380 34419338 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN