Mesoscale Discussion 0898
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0107 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025

   Areas affected...far eastern Missouri...southeast
   Illinois...southwest Indiana...and western Kentucky

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 200607Z - 200730Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Wind damage and QLCS tornado threat may persist east of
   Tornado Watch 298. An extension in space of the existing watch or a
   new watch may be needed.

   DISCUSSION...A long-lived linear MCS continues to move east across
   Missouri this morning. This MCS has a history of producing sporadic
   wind damage along with transient to slightly longer lived low-level
   circulations/QLCS tornadoes.

   The environment along the path of the MCS Monday evening was
   unstable and highly sheared. SPC mesoanalysis shows the environment
   ahead of the MCS remains highly sheared -- 40-50 knots effective
   deep-layer shear -- and remains unstable -- with mixed-layer CAPE
   between 1000-2000 J/kg. SPC Mesoanalysis also shows that this region
   is a relative minimum in convective inhibition, which would support
   a continued wind threat/QLCS tornado threat.

   Either a local extension of Tornado Watch 298 or a new watch will
   likely be needed within the next hour.

   ..Marsh/Smith.. 05/20/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   36638986 38259047 39128961 39168804 38768717 37658669
               36738695 36638986 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN