Mesoscale Discussion 0902
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1019 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025

   Areas affected...parts of eastern Kentucky...middle/eastern
   Tennessee,,,northern Alabama

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 201519Z - 201745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...An initially isolated severe wind threat will probably
   gradually become more widespread, perhaps along with increasing
   potential for tornadoes, as storms spread eastward into early/mid
   afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Little in the way of notable surface pressures rises
   have recently been evident within elongated, eastward advancing
   (around 35 kt) conglomerate convective outflow.  However, forcing
   for ascent downstream of large-scale  mid-level troughing slowly
   pivoting into the lower Ohio Valley has been maintaining convective
   development along its leading edge, with embedded cells occasionally
   undergoing a period of intensification.  The downstream
   boundary-layer across eastern Tennessee into the vicinity of a
   stalled frontal zone across Kentucky is seasonably moist, and
   becoming characterized by CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg, with
   inhibition gradually weakening with insolation.  

   As daytime heating continues, a gradual intensification of storms is
   likely to continue, with further organization probable as this
   occurs, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear beneath 50+ kt
   southwesterly 500 mb flow.  It appears that the intersection of the
   convective outflow and the surface frontal zone may become the focus
   for a developing area of low pressure across south central through
   southeastern Kentucky.  As this occurs, hodographs might become
   increasingly conducive to a risk for tornadoes, in addition to
   increasing potential for strong to severe surface gusts associated
   with the strengthening convective cold pool.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 05/20/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   37708562 38428448 38278303 37078313 35698500 34588637
               34558787 35158777 36098684 37708562 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN