Mesoscale Discussion 0940
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0153 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

   Areas affected...parts of southeastern Wyoming...southwestern
   Nebraska...northeastern Colorado...northwestern Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 231853Z - 232130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm activity will begin to initiate to
   the east of the Front Range during the next few hours, particularly
   to the east/southeast of Cheyenne, with a couple of intensifying
   supercells  posing increasing potential for severe weather by late
   afternoon. Trends are being monitored for a watch.

   DISCUSSION...Stronger boundary-layer destabilization the past few
   hours has been focused to the lee of the Front Range, in a corridor
   from southeastern Wyoming through northeastern Colorado. 
   Mixed-layer CAPE now appears to be increasing in excess of 1000-1500
   J/kg, and notable 2-hourly surface pressure falls on the order of
   2-3 mb have recently been observed across the Akron CO through
   Cheyenne WY vicinity.

   Deepening convective development is ongoing across the higher
   terrain, particularly in a narrow plume near the Colorado/Wyoming
   state border to the west of Cheyenne.  As inhibition continues to
   weaken with further insolation, perhaps aided by a subtle mid-level
   perturbation developing to the east of the Front Range, thunderstorm
   initiation appears increasingly probable through 20-22Z.

   Both HREF and NCEP SREF indicate highest calibrated thunderstorm
   probabilities initially focused along the southern slopes of the
   Cheyenne Ridge (supported by current trends), before increasing
   southeastward across northeast Colorado toward northwest Kansas.

   Beneath modest (but strongly sheared) westerly deep-layer mean flow,
    a couple of supercells are likely to evolve while slowly
   propagating eastward/southeastward into/across the high plains.  As
   this occurs, it appears that thermodynamic profiles will become
   increasingly conducive to large hail, locally damaging wind gusts,
   and perhaps some risk for a brief/weak tornado.

   ..Kerr/Guyer.. 05/23/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   41140503 42060426 41500263 40550210 39990134 39110120
               38730232 39030292 39760331 41140503 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN