Mesoscale Discussion 0942
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0509 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

   Areas affected...eastern CO and western NE/KS

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 313...

   Valid 232209Z - 240015Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 313
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to increase substantially
   into early evening across the central High Plains. Very large hail
   to around baseball size, a tornado or two, and localized severe
   gusts are possible.

   DISCUSSION...A trio of sustained supercell corridors is anticipated
   through early evening across the central High Plains. The first and
   northernmost is underway over the southwest NE Panhandle/northeast
   Colorado border area. With smaller surface temperature-dew point
   spreads, this corridor will have the best chance at producing a
   tornado or two through 01-02Z, especially with any right-mover in
   northeast CO. A separate sustained supercell should evolve off the
   Palmer Divide in east-central CO and eventually spread into
   west-central KS. The southernmost and later developing convection
   should occur along the southeast CO/southwest KS border and may
   eventually shift east-southeast. With a stout EML yielding
   increasing MLCIN with eastern extent, it is likely that only a few
   supercells will be sustained. But the very steep mid-level lapse
   rates (near 9 C/km) and 45-50 kt effective shear will support
   intense mid-level rotation with very large hail as the primary
   hazard.

   ..Grams.. 05/23/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   41320365 41640362 41980339 42150259 41880201 40710153
               39130132 37590121 37040119 36900163 37120242 37460238
               38200265 39100326 40270324 40820349 41320365 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN