ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 250052 
SPC MCD 250052 
OKZ000-TXZ000-250215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0960
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Areas affected...Western/central OK...far eastern TX Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 250052Z - 250215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Supercell development remains possible this evening. A
threat for tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds could
evolve if development occurs.

DISCUSSION...Towering cumulus is noted this evening from the far
northeast TX Panhandle into northwest OK, in the vicinity of a
quasi-stationary front. The thermodynamic environment remains quite
volatile, with 70s F dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates
(as noted on the 00Z OUN sounding) supporting MLCAPE in excess of
4000 J/kg. Deep-layer shear is sufficient for supercells, and
hodographs will increase with size through the evening in
conjunction with a strengthening low-level jet. 

Uncertainty remains regarding the potential for development this
evening, given the presence of warm 700 mb temperatures (14C on the
00Z OUN sounding) and residual capping. The low-level jet should
eventually aid in storm development near/north of the front later
tonight, but any storms that can mature earlier this evening could
evolve into surface-based supercells, with an attendant threat of
tornadoes, very large hail, and isolated severe gusts. Tornado Watch
issuance is likely if storm initiation appears imminent this
evening.

..Dean/Mosier.. 05/25/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON   35630042 35840059 36070049 36509959 36429804 36159707
            35929677 35519680 35069707 34809724 34749775 34719825
            34849902 34999958 35370014 35630042 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN

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