ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 251753 SPC MCD 251753 TXZ000-252000- Mesoscale Discussion 0966 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Areas affected...TX Low Rolling Plains/Caprock Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 251753Z - 252000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Monitoring for Convective Initiation in the vicinity of the Caprock (130-330pm CDT/1830-2030z). A Watch will likely be needed soon once the cap has eroded and storm development is underway or imminent. DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a swelling/towering cumulus field over the Low Rolling Plains/Caprock, which is located in the vicinity of a wind shift that arcs generally westward from southwest OK to the I-27 corridor between Amarillo and Lubbock. A triple point is analyzed near Plainview with a dryline extending southward into the Permian Basin. Surface analysis indicates a reservoir of 65-70 deg F dewpoints is located immediately east of I-27 eastward into the Low Rolling Plains east of the Caprock. Strong surface heating is resulting in temperatures rising to around 90 deg F near Lubbock and into the lower 80s north of the wind shift near the TX/southwest OK border. Recent model guidance suggests the erosion of the remaining appreciable convective inhibition will occur over the next 1-3 hours east of the triple point along the wind shift. Once convective initiation occurs, a very to extremely unstable airmass (3500-4500 J/kg MLCAPE) will result in explosive thunderstorm development. Large veering of the wind profile will act to partially compensate for moderate mid to high-level southwesterlies and favor supercells early in the convective life cycle. The very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates will promote large to giant hail growth. Easterly low-level flow near and behind the modified wind shift will augment SRH/enlarge hodographs supporting some tornado risk. As additional storms develop later this afternoon through the evening, there is high confidence in upscale growth into a linear cluster with severe gusts becoming the primary threat mid-late evening into the early overnight. ..Smith/Guyer.. 05/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 33500028 33510073 34270183 34530185 34810167 34790135 34350082 34050019 33740006 33500028 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN NNNN