Mesoscale Discussion 0967
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0132 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of Arkansas into the Mid Mississippi Valley
   and western Tennessee Valley

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 251832Z - 252030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A cluster of elevated thunderstorms across northern OK/AR,
   and additional development farther south, should grow upscale into
   an MCS this afternoon. An increasing risk for damaging winds, as
   well as isolated hail and some tornado risk is expected over parts
   of the MS Valley and Southeast. A WW is likely.

   DISCUSSION...As of 1830 UTC, regional radar/satellite imagery showed
   a cluster of elevated thunderstorms along and north of a stationary
   baroclinic boundary from northeastern OK into the Ozarks and
   Southeast. So far these storms have remained north of the primary
   surface baroclinic zone, sustaining themselves in around 1000 J/kg
   of MUCAPE. Recent satellite trends show the southwestern portion of
   the cold pool is approach the boundary and should begin to interact
   with the higher theta-E air mass across western AR and southeastern
   OK. Strong diurnal heating is supporting upwards of 3000 J/kg of
   MLCAPE. As ascent from the advancing cold pool, and a subtle
   mid-level shortwave trough continue eastward, redevelopment along
   the boundary is expected this afternoon. This, along with additional
   convection developing in a low-level warm air advection regime ahead
   of the line, will favor upscale growth.

   With plentiful MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg and 35-40 kt of deep-layer
   shear from the LZK VAD, one or more bowing clusters may develop and
   track east along the baroclinic zone with a risk for damaging gusts
   across AR and into western TN and MS. Isolated hail will also be
   possible given the large buoyancy and sufficient vertical shear.
   Hail appears most probable with any more discrete cells that develop
   along the baroclinic zone ahead of the surging cold pool.
   Additionally, a tornado or two will be possible with embedded
   mesovorticies as any stronger bows may interact with backed
   low-level flow and stronger shear along the stationary boundary.

   As storms develop/intensify with continued heating, the severe
   threat should steadily increase across much of AR and the Mid MS and
   western TN Valleys. A new WW is likely this afternoon.

   ..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/25/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

   LAT...LON   33129252 33429368 34009438 34649437 35599402 35659254
               35549030 35178737 34908714 33268719 32728936 33129252 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN