Mesoscale Discussion 0973
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0348 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

   Areas affected...TX Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 252048Z - 252315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Convective Initiation along a frontal zone appears
   increasingly likely between 4-7pm CDT (21-00z).  Large hail appears
   to be the primary threat, although the risk for severe gusts will
   increase during the evening.

   DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a gradual clumping of
   cumulus along a front draped from southwest to northeast across the
   TX Panhandle.  A patch of cirrus over eastern NM appears associated
   with the leading edge of appreciable large-scale ascent from a
   Desert Southwest upper trough.  As continued heating of a
   moist/destabilizing boundary layer occurs this this afternoon,
   expecting additional erosion of convective inhibition along the
   boundary.  Modifying the 18z Amarillo raob for lower 80s deg F
   temperatures and lower 60s dewpoints, yields around 2400 J/kg MLCAPE
   and minimal MLCINH (-35 J/kg).  

   Models continue to vary regarding timing/coverage of storm
   development within this mesoscale corridor.  However, cloud trends
   and forecaster experience imply at least isolated to widely
   scattered storm development over the next 3 or so hours.  Depending
   on timing/coverage of developing storms, a severe thunderstorm watch
   will be considered.

   ..Smith/Guyer.. 05/25/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   34800261 35440157 36180083 36280014 36019988 35659984
               34400186 34370251 34800261 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN