ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 252048 
SPC MCD 252048 
OKZ000-TXZ000-252315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0973
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

Areas affected...TX Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 252048Z - 252315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Convective Initiation along a frontal zone appears
increasingly likely between 4-7pm CDT (21-00z).  Large hail appears
to be the primary threat, although the risk for severe gusts will
increase during the evening.

DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a gradual clumping of
cumulus along a front draped from southwest to northeast across the
TX Panhandle.  A patch of cirrus over eastern NM appears associated
with the leading edge of appreciable large-scale ascent from a
Desert Southwest upper trough.  As continued heating of a
moist/destabilizing boundary layer occurs this this afternoon,
expecting additional erosion of convective inhibition along the
boundary.  Modifying the 18z Amarillo raob for lower 80s deg F
temperatures and lower 60s dewpoints, yields around 2400 J/kg MLCAPE
and minimal MLCINH (-35 J/kg).  

Models continue to vary regarding timing/coverage of storm
development within this mesoscale corridor.  However, cloud trends
and forecaster experience imply at least isolated to widely
scattered storm development over the next 3 or so hours.  Depending
on timing/coverage of developing storms, a severe thunderstorm watch
will be considered.

..Smith/Guyer.. 05/25/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   34800261 35440157 36180083 36280014 36019988 35659984
            34400186 34370251 34800261 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

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