Mesoscale Discussion 0977
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0549 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

   Areas affected...Texas Panhandle...Oklahoma Panhandle...southern
   Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 252249Z - 260045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe threat to increase through the evening with
   additional thunderstorm development.

   DISCUSSION...An ejecting wave and increasing forcing for ascent will
   lead to an increase in coverage of thunderstorms across the
   Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and eastern New Mexico. Surface objective
   analysis suggests MLCIN remains in place. Further cooling aloft will
   aid in reducing MLCIN amid MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg and steep
   low to mid-level lapse rates. Deep layer shear around 50 kts will
   support organized supercells capable of large to very large hail and
   damaging winds. A watch will be needed to cover this risk soon.

   ..Thornton/Mosier.. 05/25/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   35930437 36400424 36830375 37040279 37080229 37060116
               36970028 36510003 35370003 35270009 34810011 34670053
               34620165 34680279 34730315 35020345 35520411 35590418
               35930437 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN