ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 262037 SPC MCD 262037 TXZ000-NMZ000-262230- Mesoscale Discussion 0993 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Areas affected...parts of eastern New Mexico and the western Texas Panhandle. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 262037Z - 262230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered convection developing across the southern Raton Rim and Sangre De Cristos may pose an initial risk for hail, before damaging wind and some tornado potential increases across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle this evening. A watch is possible. DISCUSSION...As of 2030 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery showed scattered convection developing/maturing across the higher terrain of far southern CO and northeastern NM. Located within a broad low-level upslope flow regime, convection has been gradually intensifying this afternoon. With low-level easterly flow near a partially modified outflow boundary, 40s and 50s F surface dewpoints are contributing to 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear is somewhat weak currently, displaced to the north of the stronger sub-tropical jet farther south. However, sufficient buoyancy and 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear are supporting a mix of multi-cell clusters and transient supercells with an initial risk for some hail. With time, consolidating outflows should allow for clustering and some forward prorogation way from the higher terrain. CAM guidance continues to show this evolution, with one or more linear clusters maturing and propagating along the remnant outflow, across the southern High Plains into the western TX Panhandle this evening. This would favor a risk for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado with the stronger supercellular elements. While the exact timing of this evolution remains contingent upon storm interactions and chaotic cold pool growth, observational trends/model guidance suggest the severe threat will gradually increase through the afternoon and into this evening. A weather watch may be needed, though there remains substantial uncertainty on the timing and placement. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 33320119 33040239 33080404 34130538 35240596 35480539 35890368 35140286 34670153 33320119 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN NNNN