Mesoscale Discussion 1044
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0249 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of eastern VA...MD...DE...northeastern
   NC...and far southeastern PA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 301949Z - 302145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The risk of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes will
   increase in the 22Z-00Z time frame. A watch will likely be issued
   for parts of the area within an hour or two.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a surface low over
   northern WV, with a quasi-warm front extending eastward across MD
   into southern NJ. Along/south of the front, diurnal heating within
   cloud breaks and lower/middle 60s dewpoints are contributing to
   around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. As storms spread/develop eastward into the
   destabilizing air mass, 40-50 kt of effective shear should favor
   gradual intensification/organization into semi-discrete clusters and
   supercells. Enhanced clockwise hodograph curvature (around 150 m2/s2
   effective SRH) ahead of the east-northeastward-moving surface low
   will support the potential for a few tornadoes (along with locally
   damaging wind gusts) with the more organized supercells that evolve.
   A watch is likely for parts of the area within an hour or two.

   ..Weinman/Smith.. 05/30/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   37337853 38497825 39377792 39847698 39917641 39747579
               39387537 38757517 37267557 36217624 35857708 35907796
               36167848 37337853 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN