Mesoscale Discussion 1049
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0540 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025

   Areas affected...Northern Virginia...Washington DC...parts of
   central Maryland

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 350...

   Valid 302240Z - 310045Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 350 continues.

   SUMMARY...A local corridor of greater tornado threat is evident in
   the DC/Baltimore region over the next 1-3 hours.

   DISCUSSION...A narrow zone of favorably backed surface winds, south
   of a warm front near the PA/MD border, will be the most favorable
   corridor for tornadoes over the next 1-3 hours. Local VAD data from
   KLWX and nearby TDWRs show sufficient SRH for low-level mesocyclone
   development. A bookend vortex within a linear segment in northern
   Virginia will continue north-northeast into this favorable zone.
   Farther east, additional discrete storms will also have some
   potential to produce a tornado. The primary limiting factors will be
   modest buoyancy, weak mid-level lapse rates, and limited remaining
   time for surface heating.

   ..Wendt.. 05/30/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LWX...

   LAT...LON   38847850 39007821 39187785 39357727 39347659 39147634
               38797648 38477706 38367775 38337838 38847850 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN