Mesoscale Discussion 1053
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0930 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of South Florida

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 311430Z - 311700Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple strong to locally damaging wind gusts may
   accompany thunderstorms as they spread/develop east-southeastward
   across South FL through mid afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Morning surface analysis shows an ENE/WSW-oriented cold
   front moving slowly southward toward Lake Okeechobee in South FL.
   Thunderstorms are ongoing along/north of the front, with additional
   development south of the front within broadly confluent (albeit
   veered) low-level flow. Despite poor midlevel lapse rates, diurnal
   heating of a moist air mass (beneath high-level clouds) is
   contributing to moderate surface-based instability ahead of storms.
   This, combined with around 35 kt of unidirectional 0-6 km shear,
   will favor a couple loosely organized thunderstorm clusters (both
   along and ahead of the front) -- capable of producing strong to
   locally damaging winds gusts. The overall severe threat is expected
   to remain too marginal/localized for a watch.

   ..Weinman/Hart.. 05/31/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

   LAT...LON   26718208 27388087 27518051 27538032 27298011 26697995
               26068006 25938025 25908116 26088178 26548211 26718208 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH