ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 011853 SPC MCD 011853 NMZ000-COZ000-012130- Mesoscale Discussion 1062 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Areas affected...central Colorado and north-central New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 011853Z - 012130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop through the afternoon. Instability will support at least some potential for hail and gusty thunderstorm outflows. However, the lack of stronger deep-layer shear should limit the overall severe threat to being more transient in nature. A watch is not likely. DISCUSSION...Terrain-driven low-level convergence has resulted in the development of convection across the higher terrain of central Colorado and north-central New Mexico. To the east of the higher terrain, surface dewpoints in the 50s coupled with diurnal heating has resulted in a corridor of MUCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg, with the higher values tied to higher surface moisture. Despite sufficient instability for storm maintenance, deep-layer shear is weak, with effective-layer shear generally less than 20 knots should limit the ability for updraft organization. The result should be updrafts initially tied to the terrain, where low-level convergence will force ascent. Isolated hail and perhaps a strong wind gust or two may be possible with these terrain-driven storms. With time, aggregate cold pools may move off the terrain and into the high-elevation plains adjacent to the mountains allowing for additional thunderstorm development. Here, continued heating will allow most-unstable CAPE to continue to increase until convective cloud debris overspreads the area reducing insolation. However, MUCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg will remain possible. Forecast soundings indicated that some increase in effective-layer shear, but still generally below 30 knots. This may allow for some conglomeration of updrafts and at least transient multi-cell clusters capable of producing large hail and a strong wind gust or two. Given the anticipated isolated/transient nature of any organized severe threat (should it develop) a watch is not anticipated. ..Marsh/Guyer.. 06/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 38360589 39330590 39630523 39490442 38830404 37670355 36670334 35880341 35370366 34750417 34600452 34580497 34770546 35150559 36810544 38360589 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN NNNN