Mesoscale Discussion 1075
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0247 PM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025

   Areas affected...eastern Colorado and western Kansas into far
   southwest Nebraska.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 021947Z - 022115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon with a primary
   threat of severe wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...A gradient of instability exists across the central
   High Plains with dewpoints in the 40s near the Front Range and in
   the upper 60s across southwest Kansas. SPC mesoanalysis shows a
   weakly unstable, but uncapped environment across southeast Colorado
   where cold air associated with the upper low has started to move
   east of the terrain. As heating continues and temperatures continue
   to cool aloft, expect an uncapped environment across much of eastern
   Colorado and western Kansas. In addition, ascent will increase as
   the trough advances east. 

   Therefore, expect a gradual increase in convective coverage across
   northeast New Mexico and eastern Colorado this afternoon.
   Eventually, these storms should become more intense as they move
   toward greater instability. Some large hail is possible initially,
   however, severe wind gusts will be preferred. Very steep lapse rates
   will support the potential for some significant severe wind gusts of
   80-90 mph this evening (in western Kansas), particularly where any
   bowing line segments can develop. 

   A watch will likely be needed later this afternoon for the threat
   from these storms, and storms which will likely move into southwest
   Kansas from watch 353.

   ..Bentley/Smith.. 06/02/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...
   ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36950309 37380342 39160386 40350333 40390148 39990008
               37619982 36979990 36950309 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...85-100 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN