Mesoscale Discussion 1089
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1215 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025

   Areas affected...western OK into northwest TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 031715Z - 031845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe potential will continue to increase across western
   OK and northwest Texas the next 1-2 hours, and watch issuance is
   likely by mid-afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Towering cumulus is noted in visible satellite imagery
   ahead of a cold front across far western OK and the eastern TX
   Panhandle. Additional agitated cumulus is noted further south across
   the eastern South Plains as well. This activity is developing within
   an area of strong heating where temperatures have warmed well into
   the 80s amid mid/upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints. This is
   contributing to MLCAPE increasing to around 1500-2000 J/kg at
   midday. Continued heating and low-level theta-e advection will
   support further destabilization into the afternoon, along with
   rapidly eroding capping. Convective initiation is likely soon across
   far western OK, with additional storm development expected through
   the afternoon. 

   Effective shear magnitudes are somewhat modest, but should improve
   some this afternoon. Regardless, 20-40 kt south/southwesterly flow
   through much of the low-levels and cloud-bearing layer will support
   organized storms. While isolated cells are possible across the warm
   sector in low-level confluence bands, the more likely scenario is
   for rapid development into a linear storm mode with bowing segments,
   likely due to deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary and
   linear forcing along the cold front. More discrete cells may be more
   likely across northwest TX where open warm sector convection may be
   more likely. Damaging gusts will be the primary hazard, though any
   more discrete convection could also produce isolated large hail.
   While tornado potential is low, it is not zero, though low-level
   hodographs and 0-1 km SRH are expected to remain small. A severe
   thunderstorm watch will likely be needed based on convective trends.

   ..Leitman/Smith.. 06/03/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36539950 36629893 36339850 35849838 34559835 33609850
               33269865 32979909 32799942 32829975 32880034 33100068
               33460073 35200032 35510021 36419980 36539950 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN