ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 041811 
SPC MCD 041811 
NMZ000-042045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1110
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 PM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025

Areas affected...Parts of northwest/north-central New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 041811Z - 042045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated instances of large hail and locally severe winds
gusts may accompany east-northeastward-spreading thunderstorms
through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms are evolving
east-northeastward over west-central NM this afternoon -- within a
steepening low-level lapse rate plume preceding the midlevel
shortwave trough over AZ. Continued diurnal heating of recycled
boundary-layer moisture (lower 50s dewpoints) beneath steepening
midlevel lapse rates should support a modest uptick in convective
intensity over the next few hours. Given a long/straight hodograph
(characterized by around 40 kt of effective shear), a couple loosely
organized clusters and transient supercell structures will be
capable of producing isolated large hail and locally severe gusts. 

Current thinking is that the severe risk will remain too isolated
for a watch, though an uptick in convective intensity is possible
farther east into east-central NM and eventually the TX Panhandle
later this afternoon into the evening.

..Weinman/Smith.. 06/04/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...

LAT...LON   34110729 34350842 34610876 35140887 36010859 36350824
            36540765 36590665 36410592 36030557 35620553 34600566
            34140609 34110729 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

NNNN