ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 042055 
SPC MCD 042055 
TXZ000-042300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1113
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 PM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025

Areas affected...Parts of the Texas Trans-Pecos

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 042055Z - 042300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and locally severe gusts will be
possible if storms can mature over the Trans-Pecos region this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...The latest visible satellite imagery shows deepening
boundary-layer cumulus where a stationary front is intersecting the
higher terrain in the TX Trans-Pecos region this afternoon. Isolated
convective initiation is also underway along the TX/MX border. While
weak large-scale ascent and antecedent inhibition cast uncertainty
on storm longevity (especially away from the higher terrain
features), a long/straight hodograph (around 40-50 kt of effective
shear) and moderate-strong buoyancy will conditionally support a
discrete/semi-discrete supercell or two capable of producing large
hail and locally severe gusts. Given the conditional and potentially
localized nature of the threat, a watch is not expected.

..Weinman/Smith.. 06/04/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...

LAT...LON   30100454 30330463 30560459 30810429 30860403 30790371
            30450325 29620273 29290278 28960310 29000350 29340414
            30100454 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

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