ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 042238 SPC MCD 042238 TXZ000-NMZ000-050045- Mesoscale Discussion 1114 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0538 PM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Areas affected...parts of central and northeastern New Mexico into the western Texas Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 042238Z - 050045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...An evolving cluster of storms may continue to pose a risk for marginally severe hail and wind while spreading east of the higher terrain during the next few hours, with potential to become better organized along with increasing risk of severe weather as it approaches the Texas state border vicinity north of Clovis toward 7-9 PM MDT. DISCUSSION...Large-scale forcing for ascent and destabilization, aided by differential thermal advection, appears to have contributed to a clustering of strong thunderstorm development now centered around the Albuquerque NM vicinity. Embedded within favorably sheared west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow on the order of 30 kt, this activity appears likely to advect east of the higher terrain, where thermodynamic profiles appear characterized by steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates with modestly deep boundary-layer mixing and weak CAPE. This environment may be conducive to a continuing risk for a couple of strong downbursts, aided by evaporative cooling and melting. Toward 01-03Z, as convection approaches the Texas state border vicinity near/north and northeast of the Clovis and Tucumcari vicinities, there does appear potential for storms to acquire updraft inflow of better boundary-layer moisture and instability. If/when it does, this may be accompanied by increasing organization and potential to produce severe hail and wind, perhaps including supercell structures accompanied by a risk for a tornado or two. ..Kerr/Hart.. 06/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ... LAT...LON 36120354 36100218 35080162 34280267 34330360 34520462 34530553 34710626 35240608 35720580 36140472 36120354 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN NNNN