Mesoscale Discussion 1118
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1227 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of the Texas South Plains

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 051727Z - 052000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe risk will gradually increase through mid/late
   afternoon. Supercells will be capable of producing tornadoes (some
   possibly strong), large to giant hail, and severe winds gusts. A
   Tornado watch is likely by 19Z.

   DISCUSSION...An east/west-oriented convectively augmented warm front
   is moving slowly northward over the TX South Plains, though
   persistent cloud coverage to its north will tend to limit northward
   motion. Along the boundary, visible satellite imagery shows slowly
   eroding low-level clouds, and billow clouds are gradually
   transitioning to HCRs. This boundary-layer destabilization will
   continue through the afternoon, and given upper 60s/lower 70s
   dewpoints (higher to the south), a strongly unstable air mass will
   develop. Current thinking is that storms will develop over parts of
   southeast NM within the steeper low-level lapse rate plume (where
   boundary-layer cumulus is deepening), and track eastward in the
   vicinity of the warm front. However, given the deep/rich moisture
   and weak inhibition, additional storm development is possible near
   the boundary in the TX South Plains. 

   Evolving storms will be moving into the strongly unstable air mass,
   where 50-60 kt of effective shear and generally weak large-scale
   ascent will promote discrete supercells. The primary concerns with
   initial supercells will be large to giant hail (3+ inches) and
   locally severe gusts. However, backed surface winds along/north of
   the northward-shifting warm front, beneath a gradually strengthening
   low-level jet, will yield enlarging clockwise-curved hodographs
   (effective SRH increasing to 300+ m2/s2). This will support
   increasing potential for supercell tornadoes (some of which may be
   strong).

   While timing of storm development and maturation is uncertain, a
   Tornado Watch will likely be issued by 19Z for parts of the area.

   ..Weinman/Thompson.. 06/05/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   32420155 32490273 32690347 33110372 34030361 34350341
               34640270 34670129 34420047 34100015 33510010 32990023
               32620069 32420155 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN