Mesoscale Discussion 1123
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0130 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of eastern Colorado

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 051830Z - 052030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A few severe storms capable of producing large hail and
   severe gusts will be possible through the afternoon. Trends are
   being monitored for a possible watch.

   DISCUSSION...The latest visible satellite imagery shows increasingly
   agitated boundary-layer cumulus over the Front Range into the Sangre
   De Cristo Mountains, an east/west-oriented boundary over far
   northeastern CO, and a separate boundary extending from a mesoscale
   low near the Palmer Divide. Continued heating and lower 50s
   dewpoints in the vicinity of these areas of mesoscale ascent should
   support widely scattered thunderstorm development over the next few
   hours. As thunderstorms track/develop east-southeastward, a
   long/straight hodograph (around 40 kt of effective shear) and 1500
   J/kg MLCAPE will promote convective organization into clusters and
   perhaps supercell structures. Large hail and severe wind gusts could
   accompany this activity, though the rich moisture and enhanced
   vorticity near the Palmer Divide could support a tornado or two. A
   watch is possible for parts of the area.

   ..Weinman/Smith.. 06/05/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   39180520 40650511 41000490 41250438 41260370 41120316
               40780281 40250257 39020260 38030312 37710357 37650421
               38000479 39180520 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN