Mesoscale Discussion 1127
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0320 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025

   Areas affected...southeast OH...northern WV...southwest PA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 052020Z - 052215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe gusts capable of wind damage may
   focus across southeast OH eastward into northern portions of WV and
   southwest PA through 7-8pm EDT.

   DISCUSSION...An MCV evident in radar imagery has moved
   north-northeastward across western OH and another portion of this
   mid-level vorticity maximum is moving east across south-central OH. 
   The southern portion of this larger-scale convective-aided
   disturbance is likely acting to enhance thunderstorm development
   across the eastern 1/3rd of OH late this afternoon.  Surface
   conditions ahead of the storm activity in southeast OH have warmed
   into the lower 80s with dewpoints in the lower 60s.  Objective
   analysis data shows around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE but effective shear at
   or below 20 kt.  As a result, storm organization potential will
   likely remain limited in terms of more organized multicellular
   modes.  However, the MCV may act to focus thunderstorms and an
   isolated risk for damaging gusts for the next several hours across
   parts of the upper OH Valley.

   ..Smith.. 06/05/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...

   LAT...LON   39978176 40238151 40528011 40267963 40087952 39767954
               39427980 39198152 39518175 39978176 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN