Mesoscale Discussion 1128
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0333 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of southwest Kansas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 369...

   Valid 052033Z - 052200Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 369 continues.

   SUMMARY...Risk of very large hail continues with an eastward-moving
   supercell in far southwest KS. Tornado risk may be increasing as
   well.

   DISCUSSION...Ahead of a weak lee cyclone and surface boundary over
   far southeastern CO, a supercell has evolved over far southwest KS.
   A long/mostly straight hodograph (around 50 kt of 0-6 km shear) per
   DDC VWP and moderate surface-based instability should continue to
   favor large to very large hail and locally severe gusts with this
   activity. Ahead of this storm, visible satellite imagery still shows
   billow cloud structures -- indicating antecedent boundary-layer
   static stability. However, the associated sheltered boundary layer
   should be accompanied by enhanced low-level SRH, and given the
   established mesocyclone, the tornado risk may be increasing.

   ..Weinman.. 06/05/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...

   LAT...LON   37210172 37310194 37700200 37860170 37950094 37840062
               37340060 37200091 37210172 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN