Mesoscale Discussion 1137
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0815 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025

   Areas affected...parts of eastern Colorado...southern Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 060115Z - 060245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Tornado Watch 369 and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 370 are
   currently set to expire at 9 PM CDT/8 PM MDT.  However, thunderstorm
   development may continue to increase into the 9-11 PM CDT time frame
   near the Kansas/Oklahoma border vicinity, accompanied by at least
   some continuing risk for severe hail.  It is possible that a new
   severe weather watch will be issued.

   DISCUSSION...Appreciable boundary-layer instability remains largely
   focused within a narrow corridor along the Kansas/Colorado border
   vicinity, near/east of modest lee surface troughing.  This appears
   to include CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg.  

   Southerly low-level updraft inflow emanating from this environment
   has been maintaining stronger convection in a southward propagating
   cluster across and south of the I-70 corridor during the past couple
   of hours, within otherwise weak westerly deep-layer ambient mean
   flow (due to pronounced turning of wind fields with height) on the
   order of 10-15 kts.  It is possible that this activity could
   continue to be accompanied by a risk for severe hail and wind
   another hour or two, but this threat seems likely to diminish as
   boundary-layer instability wanes with the loss of daytime heating.

   Convection-allowing guidance generally indicates that the primary
   corridor of continuing convective development will align along a
   rough west-northwest to east-southeast axis, supported by
   lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection along the northern periphery
   of a warmer plume of air based near or just below 700 mb.  Based on
   forecast soundings, most unstable parcels along this corridor will
   be rooted above a relatively cooler/more stable near-surface layer,
   but convective-layer shear and thermodynamic profiles might still be
   conducive to a risk for severe hail.

   ..Kerr/Guyer.. 06/06/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

   LAT...LON   37070186 37360309 38190284 38810287 39290216 38190122
               37789924 37659752 37039748 36889904 37070186 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN