Mesoscale Discussion 1139
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1233 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

   Areas affected...northern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 060533Z - 060630Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch is needed soon.

   DISCUSSION...A well developed MCS has developed near the TX/OK
   Panhandle and is starting to accelerate southeastward. The
   downstream airmass was convectively overturned earlier by a cluster
   of storms this afternoon/evening. This was evident on the 00Z OUN
   RAOB. At least some thermodynamic recovery has likely occurred, but
   some remnant boundary layer stability remains across the region.
   This casts some doubt on intensity of the severe weather threat
   through the overnight period. However, a strengthening low-level
   jet, apparent on the KFDR and KTLX VWP will support MCS maintenance
   through the evening within a moderate to strongly sheared
   environment. This should support some threat for large hail, some
   severe wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two, where line
   orientation becomes more orthogonal to the low-level shear vector.

   ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/06/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   35239654 35199730 35329826 35479930 35739981 36349992
               37089967 37069848 37029688 36639605 35569598 35239654 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN