ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 061649 
SPC MCD 061649 
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-061845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1146
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Missouri...far southern
Illinois...western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 061649Z - 061845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in the threat for wind damage and a
couple of tornadoes is expected through mid afternoon.  A watch may
become necessary.

DISCUSSION...A well-developed MCV from morning convection is moving
generally eastward over southeast MO.  New convection has been
slowly consolidating in advance of the MCV, and additional storm
development is likely into the strongly unstable warm sector across
western KY/northwestern TN.  On the mesoscale, there will be an
increase in low-midlevel vertical shear and related hodograph
size/curvature as enhanced flow with the MCV encounters the larger
buoyancy to its east through the afternoon.  Storm clusters with
embedded supercells will be possible, with an increase in the
potential for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes through
mid-late afternoon.  This area will be monitored closely and a watch
could become necessary by early-mid afternoon (near or after 19z/2p
CDT).

..Thompson/Smith.. 06/06/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   37358756 36618732 35738758 35518852 35598911 35748962
            36159011 36599032 37199017 37578967 37618893 37538808
            37358756 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

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