Mesoscale Discussion 1148
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0139 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

   Areas affected...eastern Colorado...portions of western Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 061839Z - 062015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Supercells capable of large to very large hail, damaging
   wind, and a couple of tornadoes likely later this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows deepening cu along the Front
   Range in Colorado over the last hour, with a few lightning flashes
   near the Denver metro. CAM guidance suggests additional thunderstorm
   development is likely across the Front Range into eastern Colorado
   over the next 1-2 hours. Some MLCIN remains across portions of
   southeastern Colorado but warming temperatures have climbed into the
   70s, nearing convective temperature in morning forecast soundings.

   The profiles within this region are characterized by linear and
   elongated hodographs, with strong deep layer shear around 45-55 kts
   (strongest across southeastern Colorado. While moisture is modest,
   with MLCAPE around 500 J/kg, strong deep layer shear should aid in
   organized supercells capable of large to very large hail. Given the
   linear hodograph profiles, splitting supercells will favored.
   Low-level shear is marginal (0-1 SRH around 50-100 m2/s2) but storm
   interactions and interactions with terrain may lead to locally
   increased SRH and potential for a tornado or two. Clustering cells
   may lead to an increasing damaging wind threat as the
   afternoon/evening progresses. A Tornado Watch will likely be needed
   in the next hour to cover these threats.

   ..Thornton/Smith.. 06/06/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   37090391 36970324 37040257 37270235 38330198 38760170
               39130170 39510185 39680205 39850229 40130268 40440316
               40610385 40610443 40390493 39950513 39370528 38770522
               38240500 37900465 37380423 37090391 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN