ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 062054 
SPC MCD 062054 
TXZ000-NMZ000-062300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1153
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...eastern New Mexico and portions of Southwestern
Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 062054Z - 062300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Supercells capable of large to very large hail, damaging
winds, and a couple of tornadoes likely this afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION...Recent satellite imagery shows deepening cu across the
dryline and high terrain of eastern New Mexico. Dew points in this
region are in the upper 50s to 60s with MLCIN slowly eroding across
far southeastern New Mexico where temperatures are in the 90s.
Trends would suggest convective initiation may be delayed from
timing in most CAM guidance but should occur over the next couple of
hours. 

Strong deep layer shear around 50-55 kts will promote supercells
initially capable of large to very large hail and damaging wind.
Through time this evening, storms will be moving into a very
unstable and strongly sheared air mass across southwestern Texas. As
the low-level jet strengthens, an increase in hodograph curvature
and increasing 0-1 km SRH will likely lead to an increase in tornado
potential. A watch will likely be needed this afternoon/evening to
cover this threat.

..Thornton/Smith.. 06/06/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   32130427 32570441 33030450 33660444 34610433 34810404
            34890375 34850301 34720265 34140227 33550187 33030180
            32060210 31780252 31770331 31970407 32130427 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN

NNNN