Mesoscale Discussion 1155
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0430 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

   Areas affected...Southeast CO...northeast NM...OK/northern TX
   Panhandle...far southwest KS

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 378...

   Valid 062130Z - 062300Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 378 continues.

   SUMMARY...The supercell threat will increase into this evening, with
   a threat of very large hail, localized severe gusts, and a couple
   tornadoes.

   DISCUSSION...A supercell has developed across far southeast CO late
   this afternoon, with additional storm development noted across the
   Raton Mesa into northeast NM. Moderate buoyancy and strong
   deep-layer shear will remain favorable for organized convection into
   this evening, and development of additional supercells is possible.
   In the short term, relatively long and straight hodographs will
   favor very large hail potential as supercells become established,
   along with some threat for localized severe gusts. Increasing
   moisture/instability with southeastward extent, and an eventual
   increase in low-level flow/shear this evening, will also support a
   tornado threat.

   In order to address these threats, watch issuance is likely into
   parts of northeast NM and the TX/OK Panhandles, and possibly far
   southwest KS.

   ..Dean/Gleason.. 06/06/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   37090434 37420259 37340145 36760060 36210059 35840108
               35690200 35670277 35720361 35880417 36030453 36280461
               37090434 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN