ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 072002 SPC MCD 072002 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-072200- Mesoscale Discussion 1179 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Areas affected...Eastern North Dakota...Northeastern South Dakota...and Northwestern Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 072002Z - 072200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A few severe gusts and marginally severe hail reports are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of eastern North Dakota, northeastern South Dakota, and northwestern Minnesota. A watch is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery and RAP analyses show a strong shortwave trough moving southeastward out of Canada and into the northern Plains, and this in tandem with a surface cold front has provided the lift for convective development across parts of central North Dakota. Ahead of this front, the air mass is cut off from the rich low-level moisture by convection to the south, and as such, surface dewpoints across the region are generally in the low to mid 50s F. Large-scale lift has resulted in enough mid-level cooling for a narrow CAPE axis along the front, and this should continue to track eastward with the mid-level trough this afternoon and evening. Despite the lackluster low-level flow noted on regional VWPs, this relatively dry boundary layer may result in a few strong-severe gusts, particularly as storms cluster and cold pools merge with time. Additionally, given a deep CAPE profile, modest mid-level lapse rates, and weak low-level shear due to veered surface flow, a few marginally severe hail reports are possible with the initial activity. The hail threat is expected to gradually decrease with time. Due to the expected sparse coverage of severe wind and hail, a watch is not anticipated. ..Supinie/Thompson.. 06/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 46450051 48849874 49079813 49109611 47389595 45909701 45479906 45700024 46450051 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN NNNN