ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 080038 
SPC MCD 080038 
ILZ000-MOZ000-080215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1187
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Areas affected...parts of southeastern Missouri into adjacent
portions of southern Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 080038Z - 080215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Modest thunderstorm development posing a risk for a brief,
weak tornado could persist another hour or so, into the 8-9 PM CDT
time frame, before diminishing.

DISCUSSION...A weak surface low, beneath the southwestern periphery
of mid-level troughing progression across the middle Mississippi
into lower Ohio Valleys, has become a focus for modest
destabilization and convective development to the southwest through
south of the Greater St. Louis metropolitan area.  Mid-levels are
not particularly cold, and a relative warm layer aloft may become
increasingly inhibitive to deeper convection soon, with the loss of
daytime heating.  However, deep-layer shear is strong, beneath 40+
kt west-northwesterly flow around 500 mb, and focused low-level
convergence along a weak baroclinic zone extending to the southeast
of the low, coupled with stretching associated with near-surface
CAPE, has contributed to short-lived supercell structures posing
potential for brief, weak tornadoes. It is possible that this could
persist another hour or two, spreading toward areas near/north of
the Carbondale vicinity.

..Kerr/Gleason.. 06/08/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...

LAT...LON   38369051 38138901 37518908 37418967 37549005 37729084
            38369051 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

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