Mesoscale Discussion 1198
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1239 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

   Areas affected...portions of far southeast VA into eastern NC

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 081739Z - 081845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms, mainly pose a
   risk for damaging gusts, will be possible through the afternoon. A
   severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed soon.

   DISCUSSION...Strong heating and rich boundary layer moisture
   (surface dewpoints in the 70s) is supporting moderate instability
   across the MCD area early this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery
   shows agitated/deepening cumulus across eastern NC, and thunderstorm
   development is expected within the next 1-2 hours. Effective shear
   magnitudes will remain modest, but sufficient for organized
   convection. Meanwhile, steep low-level lapse rates will support
   strong outflow, especially if updraft consolidation from multicell
   clusters occurs. Given potential for widely scattered damaging
   gusts, a severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed.

   ..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/08/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   36477769 36817674 36647593 36077547 35257553 34647632
               34707775 34817823 35127840 36067787 36477769 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN