ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 081819 
SPC MCD 081819 
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-082015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1199
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Areas affected...portions of west-central IL...southwest to
northeast MO...southeast KS...and northeast OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 081819Z - 082015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will increase over the next
couple of hours. Damaging gusts and large hail will be possible as
storms develop eastward through early evening.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows increasing/deepening
cumulus along the MO/IL portion of the cold front early this
afternoon. Strong heating of a seasonally moist boundary layer is
fostering weak to moderate instability (stronger instability with
southwest extent into KS/OK). Isolated thunderstorms have recently
develop across north-central MO just ahead of the cold front where
inhibition has eroded. Additional thunderstorm development is
expected along/ahead of the cold front over the next few hours.
Stronger effective shear may lag just behind the cold front,
regardless, sufficient speed shear and some stronger northwesterly
mid/upper flow should allow for organized cells. Steep low-level
lapse rates will support severe/locally damaging gust potential.
Meanwhile, large hail also will be possible, particularly across
southeast KS/northeast OK and portions of southwest MO where more
robust updraft intensity is possible. 

Severe potential does become more uncertain with northeast extent
given the more modest parameter space, but a severe thunderstorm
watch will likely be needed within the next couple of hours for
portions of the MCD area.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/08/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   37639624 38179549 39319338 39789238 40249120 40179078
            39929039 39319048 38849065 38569098 36759376 36399453
            36289508 36289530 36339576 36539620 36769642 37059654
            37359644 37639624 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

NNNN