Mesoscale Discussion 1222
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1253 PM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025

   Areas affected...portions of southern MS/AL into parts of southwest
   GA and the FL Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 091753Z - 092000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may produce occasional
   strong gusts and small hail through the afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing along outflow from morning
   convection and on the southern periphery of an MCV near the central
   MS/AL border. Strong heating to the south of the surface boundary
   has allowed temperatures to warm into 80s to near 90 F amid low to
   mid 70s F dewpoints. This is resulting in a corridor of moderate
   instability. Vertical shear will remain modest, around 20-30 kt.
   This should limit a more organized severe risk, but high PW and
   steepened low-level lapse rates will support strong downburst winds.
   Some greater damaging wind potential could develop if clustering and
   updraft consolidation occurs, but this remains uncertain. Some small
   hail also could occur with any stronger/more persistent cells. While
   watch issuance does not appear imminent, trends will be monitored
   for any better convective organization.

   ..Leitman/Mosier.. 06/09/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   31838971 32138770 32698563 32478503 31708453 31278445
               30878472 30748578 30778627 30748699 30658839 30688906
               31238991 31508998 31838971 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN