Mesoscale Discussion 1234
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0820 PM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025

   Areas affected...portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 403...

   Valid 100120Z - 100245Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 403
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Upscale growth into an MCS is underway, with severe gusts
   becoming the main threat, though an instance of severe hail is
   possible. The severe threat may expand into far western TX, where a
   downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance will probably be
   needed.

   DISCUSSION...Supercells and multicells have been growing upscale
   into an MCS based on recent MRMS mosaic radar imagery. KFDX radar
   data also shows coherent, bowing inbound velocities exceeding 50 kts
   under 500 m above ground level, suggesting that potentially severe
   gusts may become the predominant hazard over the next few hours.
   Large hail could still occur with the deeper storm cores. With
   continued upscale growth, MCS propagation should take a more
   rightward turn to the southeast, into western TX, along an 850 mb
   thermal gradient, where low-level moisture is also maximized. As
   such, a downstream issuance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will
   probably be needed in the next hour or two.

   ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 06/10/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   34000476 34920465 35460444 35610349 35310248 34590197
               33840198 33310227 33270274 33660391 34000476 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN